Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis Full Fight UFC 285 Part I
- Posted on Mar 05, 2023
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Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis UFC 285 Prelims Fight Video Part I
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Derek Brunson, a longtime UFC staple, makes his comeback to the fight against the rapidly advancing Dricus du Plessis at UF 285 after being put on leave for an extended period of time.
The middleweight match is listed on the ESPN-televised opening schedule.
Brunson hasn't engaged in combat since losing to Jared Cannonier in the early months of 2022, breaking his five-game winning streak. Du Plessis, who recently submitted Darren Till for his sixth straight victory, will put him through yet another difficult test.
Let's dissect this 185-pound attraction in detail.
Brunson is 10 years older than Du Plessis. The younger fighter is typically undervalued in these matchups, winning 69% of the time with average odds of- 143( 58.8% implied), as I frequently point out.
In other words, the younger fighter wins 10% more frequently than the betting market suggests when there is a 10-year age difference between two fighters. Additionally, given the vig on moneyline wagers, their win rate is probably closer to 12.5% more frequently than oddsmakers anticipate.
Brunson's cardio and durability have never been particularly strong, but in the later years of his career, his flaws become more obvious. The American has consistently competed for their dollar and outperformed expectations overall, making it profitable for underdog backers.
However, I don't like this matchup between him and the well-rounded du Plessis, a grappler who is extremely skilled and has above-average foot power. Du Plessis has achieved 17 of his 18 career victories, and the only one he did not achieve was a one-sided victory over Brad Tavares. Middleweights who were less resilient would have given up, and late-career Brunson falls into that category.
Brunson might prevail in this fight's opening round. He is an excellent offensive takedown and a strong overhand. He does, however, only engage in six to seven minutes of cardio and no submission games.
Volume and cardio haven't been a problem for du Plessis, despite the fact that he frequently appears to be gassing because of an odd habit of breathing with his mouth open.
In the second and third rounds, I anticipate du Plessis will survive the fire and ultimately defeat Brunson through either submission or attritional damage, ground and pound. I think Brunson is in big trouble if he doesn't finish the fight on his own in the first round.
I could see Brunson catching du Plessis in an early high-variance exchange as both fighters wade into the pocket with their chins in the air.
Otherwise, I believe du Plessis won't accept the bottom position and that he will need multiple takedowns and extra top time to get a decision.